While extremely rewarding, getting a winery up and running can be very difficult to do. Not only does it require a large amount of capital and resources to start with, but you also won’t even start selling wine until a few years down the line. It’s a large investment with a substantial amount of risk – especially if you don’t plan accordingly.
In this article, we’ll discuss how you can use financial forecasting and cash flow planning to ensure that your winery is set up for success.
What Is Financial Forecasting?
Financial forecasting is the process of estimating your expected financial status in future periods. Usually, forecasting involves making use of existing data and is most commonly seen in income statements. However, more complete financial models will have forecasts for all of their financial statements, including the balance sheet, cash flow, and statement of owner’s equity.
Financial forecasting models vary from business to business. Some companies use historic figures and data as a basis for future trends, which are easier to calculate but not as reliable. Other companies favor studying expansion and inflation rates and other forecasted data, which can be more time-consuming but possibly more accurate.
Here are some of the most commonly used methods of financial forecasting to give you a better idea of how they work:
Arguably the easiest financial forecasting method, the straight-line method uses linear growth as basis for computation. If you were to chart the growth on a graph, you would notice a straight line moving up or down, hence the term “straight-line.”
To calculate using the straight-line method, all you need to do is calculate the growth rate of any relevant data you wish to forecast, such as sales. Then, multiply the current data by the growth rate to get the future amount. This process can be repeated indefinitely.
The main downside to the straight-line method is that it’s not a very accurate one, especially for smaller, more volatile businesses.
Linear regression is a popular method of financial forecasting that makes use of trends and extrapolating forecasted data from them. Similar to the straight-line method, linear regression does involve lines, but instead of the values forming the line, the values are fitted into a linear equation.
Because of its accuracy, linear regression and its various sub-methods have become one of the most common ways to forecast financial data. Unless you have the knowledge and expertise, however, you may want to refer to professionals for an accurate analysis.
What Do I Do with Data from Financial Forecasting?
Once you have a predictive model of your financial data, you can then begin to make decisions to maximize gains or minimize losses. If you’re expecting more sales in the future, you can increase production now to gain even more profits. If sales are forecasted to go down next year, you may want to cut your losses by lowering your prices. The data itself won’t save your businesses – only you can.
What Is Cash Flow Planning?
Cash flow planning is a subcategory of financial forecasting. Instead of predicting all of your financial data, however, it focuses on the future inflows and outflows of cash in your business.
Cash flow planning is such an important tool because cash is the most liquid asset that drives nearly all transactions. A business that runs out of cash dies.
To make an accurate cash flow plan, you need to consider multiple factors. Here are some of the most important ones:
This is by far the most important (and most predictable) outflow of cash. Every day, week, month, quarter, or year, you have recurring expenses that the business must pay to keep running. Common examples of this are payroll, rent, and utility bills.
Not everything goes perfectly in business. Sometimes, your business may incur losses that aren’t part of your regular expenses. These losses aren’t very predictable and can leave you with little to no liquidity.
Examples of losses include accidents (such as car accidents), natural disasters, and even spoilage. Since you can’t really predict when these events will occur during the year, some businesses set aside an amount that’s reserved for losses.
The market’s always changing, and so do the prices of goods. For wineries, this can be the difference between a large profit margin and barely breaking even. By understanding and taking into account the price changes of materials, ingredients, and even equipment, you’re able to more accurately determine your expenses and earnings for the period.
How Often Should I Make Cash Flow Plans?
Since cash flow plans involve your most liquid asset, they are best made on a month-to-month basis or even more frequently. A lot of businesses would benefit at looking at their expected cash position before making weekly payments so they can consider if delaying of payments are necessary or if they need to talk to investors or lenders to extend funds to get through high cash flow period (think about all the additional needs for cash during harvest).
Making cash flow plans for the next year is difficult, and often changing but most businesses need to plan more than a few months out, especially manufacturers, which would include wineries. At a minimum a business should be forecasting 3 months out but forecasting 1 year out will be very important to allow to make better decisions.
After making a cash flow plan, you should now have a good idea of what to expect for the next few months, and whether or not you’re going to have sufficient funds to cover your current needs.
Financial forecasting and cash flow planning are useful tools to help you make financial decisions to maximize your profits and ensure your business never runs out of cash. Financial forecasting can give you an idea of the general direction your business is headed, whereas cash flow plans help you stay on top of your month-to-month operational expenses and assisting in making long term financing decisions..
By understanding how financial forecasting and cash flow planning works, you can guarantee the success of your winery for years to come.
Accounting and bookkeeping are the heartbeat of the business side of your winery. Unfortunately, these critical functions are too often overlooked by busy owners. While it’s tempting to take shortcuts, or simply rush through the tasks, that can lead to inaccurate financial statements. That’s why Protea Financial offers outsourced accounting services.
While it’s certainly understandable – you have your plate full with so many other business tasks – errors in your accounting and bookkeeping can derail your business. And often without warning.
In 2019, it was reported that 82% of small businesses fail due to cash flow problems. And this infographic from SmallBizTrends shows that 30% of all small businesses are continually losing money due to poor financial management.
With business growth, wine sales and general management stealing your focus, you may consider outsourcing your accounting to ensure financial accuracy and promptness. Outsourcing your winery accounting can help reduce your workloads and divert some, or all of your financial tasks to qualified, highly-skilled accountants. The results will be evident. Once you have outsourced your winery’s financial tasks to an experienced accountant, you can rest assured that your business accounts are in safe hands.
Don’t believe us? Consider this: A survey in 2018 showed that over 80% of businesses outsourcing their accounting function would recommend their accountant to other businesses. If you’re not yet convinced, we’re going to tell you about all the benefits of outsourced accounting.
What Can an Outsourcing My Accounting Department Do for My Business?
Outsourced accounting can take some elements or even the entire function of accounting outside of your business. This will make room for other tasks – especially those that are particularly time-consuming. Whatever your current accounting situation, outsourced accounting can offer you a far more comprehensive solution. Here are 4 of our favorite benefits of outsourced accounting.
1. Accounting Firms Are Made For This
Wine accounting is a complex and challenging task. Not only does outsourcing your accounting take the work off your shoulders, but it places it in the competent hands of highly trained and experienced accounting staff. That’s right, with many accounting firms, you’re no longer relying on one person to manage your books, often you’re getting a whole team.
2. You Can Cut Your Overhead
When you outsource accounting, you will only pay for the work done. In the USA, worker illness and injury cost businesses a total of $225.8 Billion. You need not be one of them. By outsourcing your winery accounting needs, you skip the hassle of payroll taxes, sick leave and vacation time. Therefore, significantly improving your winery’s profit margin. You also eliminate the risk of suddenly losing staff – an issue that most businesses face when someone goes into long term sick leave or quits without notice, leaving you and your books high and dry.
3. Trained Accountants Are Meticulous and Logical
There’s nothing quite so analytical and precise as the mind of an experienced accountant. By nature, accountants are highly logical and willing to deep dive into the details in order to produce the best outcome. Often, accountants utilize highly complex software in order to manage your accounts and to produce the most accurate results possible. One of the many benefits of outsourced accounting is of course, the accountants themselves.
4. You’ll Save Money
While paying someone to do a task you managed yourself might not seem like it would save you money, it definitely will in the long run. You are now free to take care of your business in other more effective ways, or to hone your focus into one element of finance such as bookkeeping and redirect the rest. So the fee your business pays to an outsourced accountancy firm will pale in comparison to the profits from a more active business. In fact, around 30% of businesses outsourcing their accounting functions have been able to increase profit with the guidance of their new accountant.
How Protea Financial Will Bring You All the Benefits of Outsourcing Your Accounting or Bookkeeping
To remain successful, wineries need business leaders to run fast while remaining agile, as well as access to accurate financial data. The opportunity cost of not having superlative accounting is potentially enormous. Protea is here to empower you to cultivate business growth, while your outsourced accounting team manages your financial back office.
Our clients enjoy the benefit of having a team structured around your business needs. The strategic benefits of outsourcing accounting start with the savings. It’s the stack of talent that works with you around the clock to maintain the integrity of your company finances. No matter what happens, your Protea team will have your back and strive to make your job easier.
Begin your journey with Protea by requesting an evaluation today. Our goal is to design a winery financial strategy that allows you the freedom to scale at the pace you desire.